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Ukrainian parliamentary election, 2006

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Ukrainian parliamentary election, 2006

Ukrainian parliamentary election, 2006

26 March 2006

All 450 seats to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine
226 seats were needed for a majority
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Viktor Yanukovych Yulia Tymoshenko Yuriy Yekhanurov
Party
Leader since 13 April 2003 9 February 2001 8 September 2005
Last election 101 seats, 11.79% (as For United Ukraine) 22, 7.26% 111 seats, 23.58%
Seats won 186 129 81
Seat change Increase 85 Increase 107 Decrease 30
Popular vote 8,148,745 5,652,876 3,539,140
Percentage 32.14% 22.29% 13.95%
Swing Increase 20.35% Increase 15.03% Decrease 9.63%

  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Leader Oleksandr Moroz Petro Symonenko
Party
Last election 22 seats, 6.87% 66 seats, 19.98%
Seats won 33 21
Seat change Increase 11 Decrease 45
Popular vote 1,444,224 929,591
Percentage 5.69% 3.66%
Swing Decrease 1.18% Decrease 16.32

Results of the 2006 parliamentary election.

Chairman of Parliament before election

Volodymyr Lytvyn

Elected Chairman of Parliament

Oleksandr Moroz
Socialist Party

The Ukrainian parliamentary election took place on 26 March 2006. Election campaigning officially began on 7 July 2005. Between November 26 and 31 December 2005 party lists of candidates were formed.

The election to the Ukrainian parliament, Verkhovna Rada, was held according to the Party-list proportional election system—that is, in a single nationwide electoral district[1] with votes being allocated to the political parties or election blocs rather than to individual candidates. In the previous parliamentary elections half of parliamentary representatives (deputies) were elected on proportional basis, while the other half were elected in single-mandate constituencies.[1]

The constitution was amended in 2005 following negotiations and agreements during the 2004 presidential elections, abolishing single member-districts and replacing them with an increased multi-member proportional representation. The amended constitution, which took effect on 1 January 2006, also transferred some power from the President to the parliament, making Ukraine a parliamentary-presidential democracy.

According to the election law and the system adopted, the political parties or election blocs need to collect at least 3% of the national vote in order to gain seats in parliament.

Results

Party of Regions results (32.14%) Percentage of total national vote
Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko results (22.29%) Percentage of total national vote
Our Ukraine results (13.95%) Percentage of total national vote
Socialist Party of Ukraine results (5.69%) Percentage of total national vote
Communist Party of Ukraine results (3.66%) Percentage of total national vote

According to the Central Election Commission of Ukraine 67.13% of registered voters participated in the election.

On April 10 the Central Election Commission (CVK) announced the final results of vote counting; the results can be seen at the Commission's website. As a result of the election, out of 45 parties, only 5 passed the required 3% electoral threshold (see the table below).

Comparing the results with early polls (but not with 2005 opinion polls[2]), it was unexpected that President Viktor Yushchenko's party "Our Ukraine" received less than 14% of the national vote, coming third after the Party of Regions, and the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc.

As per preliminary results, the Ukrainian Communist Party was soundly trounced, getting less than 4% of the vote and 21 deputies as a result, as opposed to their 20% in the 2002 elections.

The People's Opposition Bloc of Natalia Vitrenko did not pass the electoral threshold collecting only 2.93% of total votes recorded, 0.07% short of the required 3% electoral threshold. According to the law the threshold is calculated based on the total number of the voted ballots, including the general non-confidence votes (i.e. ballots of those who voted against all parties listed) as well as invalid votes (e.g. votes for more than one party as such option is not provided by electoral law). If such votes were excluded from the total, then Vitrenko party would have received over 3% of the formal vote. Commenting the preliminary results the leader of the Opposition Bloc, Natalia Vitrenko expressed: "Based on what grounds CVK shows the total number of actual voters as 25,250 thousands? According to CVK data, 2% of votes are invalid, and 1.8% are "against all", therefore these numbers should be excluded. The base for calculations should not be more than 24,500 thousand; and that is 3% out of the votes that CVK counted for out Bloc."[2] Nonetheless, according to the Law on Election, Article 1.4 "The mandates are distributed to the parties (blocs) that obtained no less than three percents of votes of voters that participated in the election"

A set of parties which did not pass the electoral threshold, notably People's Opposition Bloc of Natalia Vitrenko and the Opposition Bloc "Ne Tak" have made claims of the elections being highly falsified and asked for vote recount. Recent reports in the media have indicated that Ukraine's President has also suggested that if necessary a partial recount of the 26 March ballot should be made. If significant mistakes were made in the tally of votes there is a chance for Opposition Block of Natalia Vitrenko to exceed the 3% threshold required by law.

Over 22% of voters who supported minor candidates (with less than the 3%) will not be represented by the parties elected due to the electoral method used (party list proportional representation with an election threshold).

After a proposed agreement between Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko, Bloc "Our Ukraine", and the Socialist Party of Ukraine to form the government fell apart the Socialist Party later formed a governing coalition with the Party of Regions and the Communist Party of Ukraine (the so-called Alliance of National Unity). Viktor Yanukovych was appointed Prime Minister on 4 August, with the backing of 30 deputies of the "Our Ukraine" Bloc, after the parties agreed on the principals of state policy expressed in the Universal of National Unity.


Electoral maps

Maps showing the top six parties support - percentage of total national vote (minimal text)
Party of Regions results (32.14%)
Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko results (22.29%)
Our Ukraine results (13.95%)
Communist Party of Ukraine results (3.66%)
Bloc Lytvyn Party results (2.44%)
Socialist Party of Ukraine results (5.69%)

World reaction

According to Arabic newsmedia Aljazeera, Party of the regions had alleged that the general elections had been marred by irregularities and poor organisation as the first exit polls were published. But while acknowledging some organisational problems, most other parties and Western observers have given the vote a largely clean bill of health. [3]

Russian newspaper Izvestia predicts that Ukraine can expect more political instability and worsening economic situation. [4]

According to Russian Gazeta.ru, Tymoshenko, Yushchenko and the Socialists can form a coalition. Yulia Tymoshenko was sure she will become a new PM. Yushchenko and Georgian President Saakishvili already congratulated her with victory. [5],[6],[7]

According to Russian RIAN, Tymoshenko promised to reconsider the Russian-Ukrainian gas deal. [8]

Washington Post informed that Yushchenko's party was beaten into a humiliating third place in parliamentary elections as the pro-Russian party of the man he defeated for the presidency 16 months ago appeared headed for a clear victory, according to exit polls. The Party of Regions, led by Viktor Yanukovych, who was defeated by Yushchenko in 2004 following massive street protests known as the Orange Revolution, secured a commanding 33.3 percent of the vote, according to one poll. A second exit poll gave his party 27.5 percent. [9]

On 27 March, Arabic Aljazeera reported that Yulia Tymoshenko, the former PM, had scored a triumph in parliamentary elections with her own bloc coming second and placing her in a position to form a coalition government. Viktor Yanukovich's pro-Russian Regions party won the most seats, but Tymoshenko emerged as a rejuvenated political figure, saying that "Orange Revolution" liberals could close ranks to keep the pro-Russian party in opposition. The outcome was a double humiliation for Viktor Yushchenko, the president, who defeated Yanukovich in a presidential poll re-run after December's 2004 street protests, and later fell out with Tymoshenko, his former Orange Revolution comrade. [10]

According to Forbes.com, Tymoshenko urged her estranged Orange Revolution allies to form a united front against their old pro-Russian nemesis, who was leading in early results from a weekend parliamentary election. Proposed coalition talks, which were supposed to get under way Monday, were delayed indefinitely.[11]

Russian online media Lenta.ru reported that activists of Vitrenko's party erected tents and started boycotting the premises of Ukrainian Central Election Commission in protest of alleged violations. [12]. According to Interfax-Ukraine[13], the tents are mostly empty. [14]

Parties and electoral blocs registered

A record number of forty five parties registered for the election, with only five securing the minimum 3% quota required to elect representatives to the Ukrainian parliament. Seats in the Verkhovna Rada are allocated among those parties securing the 3% quota according to the largest remainder method of seat allocation, using the Hare quota. Each party meeting the 3% quota is entitled to appoint one representative for every 1/450 (approximately 0.22%) of the total vote allocated to all parties exceeding the 3% threshold, with remaining seats being awarded to the parties with the largest remaining fractions of 1/450 of the total vote allocated to all parties meeting the 3% threshold.

Name of the party or electoral bloc (number of candidates):

(Parties or blocs which have obtained at least 3% of the vote are in bold)

Exit-polls

National exit poll 2006 Exit-poll Ukrainian sociology service Exit-poll "FOM-Ukraine"

Source: Korrespondent.net

Polls before the election day

According to earlier polls, front-runners where Party of Regions on 34%, Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc on 24%, as well as President Yushchenko's People's Union Our Ukraine.

Two other political forces that where virtually assured to pass a 3% barrier where the Socialist Party of Ukraine headed by Oleksander Moroz and the bloc of the current Speaker of Verkhovna Rada, Volodymyr Lytvyn (based on his former Agrarian Party of Ukraine renamed to the People's Party).

The Communist Party of Ukraine, which has progressively received less and less votes with each election (25% in 1998, 20% in 2002), was expected to continue their decline in voter support.

Whilst some parties have nominated over 400 candidates, it was always unlikely that any single Party would elect over 200 members. In order to form a Government, under Ukraine's constitution, parties will need to form a coalition with two or more voting blocks within the first month following the declaration of the polls.

Razumkov Centre Poll

Each 2 weeks Razumkov Centre held a representative national survey.

Table 1 shows the results for the parties likely to pass the three percent threshold.

Graph showing latest poll #3,Jan(2)by Razumkov published Feb 2006
Table 1: Ukrainian parliamentary election, 2006, Survey
Party or electoral bloc Nov. 2005 Jan. 2006 (1) Jan. 2006 (2)
Party of Regions 17.5% 24.7% 27.4%
Bloc "Our Ukraine" 13.5% 15.4% 16.9%
Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc 12.4% 12.0% 12.7%
Socialist Party of Ukraine 5.6% 4.6% 6.3%
Communist Party of Ukraine 5.8% 4.6% 6.2%
Lytvyn's People's Bloc 3.3% 3.0% 3.4%
Nataliya Vitrenko Bloc "People's Opposition" 2.6% 2.5% 1.8%
Other 5.3% 7.7% 7.4%
Against all 6.7% 3.9% 4.1%
Will not vote 6.4% 2.5% 3.1%
Does not know/no opinion 20.9% 19.1% 10.5%
Not answered - - 0.2%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
number of respondents 1993 2290 2016
precision (p-value) 2.3% 2.1% 2.3%

The latest Razumkov poll shows a consolidation of voter opinion and if the results of the poll are a true indication of voter intention the voter participation rate will be above 90% of registered voters. Voting in Ukraine is not compulsory. Votes below the 3% threshold are discarded which increases the proportional share of seats allocated to the remaining party/blocs. There is still 10.5% of voters undecided.

Kyiv International Institute of Sociology

Kyiv International Institute of Sociology presented the latest poll on 9 February based on a survey during 20–27 January.

Table 2 shows the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) poll results for the parties likely to pass the three percent threshold.

Graph showing poll results by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology published Feb 2006
Regional division used by KIIS
Table 2: Ukrainian parliamentary election, January 2006, Survey
Party or electoral bloc Ukraine West Center South East
Party of Regions 29.9% 5.0% 8.5% 43.5% 68.1%
Bloc "Our Ukraine" 18.5% 38.4% 23.4% 9.6% 2.3%
Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc 10.4% 16.6% 16.6% 5.3% 2.0%
Socialist Party of Ukraine 4.0% 2.1% 8.9% 2.0% 1.5%
Communist Party of Ukraine 4.5% 0.9% 4.3% 6.5% 6.0%
Lytvyn's People's Bloc 2.6% 1.8% 3.8% 3.7% 0.4%
Nataliya Vitrenko Bloc "People's Opposition" 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% 2.5% 1.8%
Civic Bloc "Pora" 0.7% 1.9% 0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Greens Party 0.6% 0.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2%
Ukrainian People's Bloc of Kostenko and Plyusch 0.5% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Opposition Bloc "Ne Tak" 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.7% 0.7%
Other (less than 0.4% each) 3.0% 1.6% 4.1% 3.6% 1.9%
Undecided 13.5% 20.5% 13.7% 12.6% 7.3%
Against all 5.7% 4.2% 10.2% 3.3% 4.0%
Does not vote 4.3% 4.3% 4.0% 5.2% 3.6%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

The map to the right shows the non administrative regional division used by KIIS: The Western region (orange) comprises the eight oblasts of the west - Volyn, Rivne, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, Transcarpathia, and Chernivtsi oblasts; the Central region (yellow) is made up by Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv and Kiev oblasts as well as the city of Kiev; the Southern region (light blue) consists of Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa, Mykolayiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia oblasts, the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol; the Eastern region (dark blue) includes Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts

See also

References

  1. ^ a b Against All Odds: Aiding Political Parties in Georgia and Ukraine (UvA Proefschriften) by Max Bader, Vossiuspers UvA, 2010, ISBN 90-5629-631-0 (page 93)
  2. ^ Ukraine:Has Yushchenko Betrayed The Orange Revolution?, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (30 September 2005)
  1. ^ Razumkov Centre: 21 листопада 2005 Рейтинг політичних партій України (Центр ім.О. Разумков) (Conducted 3–13 November 2005, published 21 November 2005, Ukrainian only, edited)
  2. ^ Razumkov Centre: 20 січня 2006 Електоральні рейтинги партій і блоків (Центр ім.О. Разумков) (Conducted 12–17 January 2006, published 20 January, Ukrainian only, edited)
  3. ^ Razumkov Centre: 8 лютого 2006 Наміри голосування на виборах до Верховної Ради України та ідеологічні орієнтації громадян (Центр ім.О. Разумков) (Conducted 26–31 January 2006, published 8 February, Ukrainian only, edited)
  4. ^ The November survey included Vitrenko's Progressive Socialist Party of Ukraine. In January it was replaced with Nataliya Vitrenko Bloc "People's Opposition", which also includes the Party "Rus'-Ukrainian Union" (RUS')
  5. ^ Kiev International Institute of Sociology:Report Documentation Link

External links

  • (English)/(Ukrainian) 2006 Parliament Election: Official website of the Central Election Commission of Ukraine
  • Serhiy Vasylchenko: Electoral Geography of Ukraine 1991 - 2010
  • (English) OSCE Project Co-ordinator in Ukraine website
  • (English) Short film: AEGEE's Election Observation Mission
  • (English) Findings from an IFES November 2005 Survey 2
  • (Russian) Review of the most recent polls as of November 3, 2005
  • (Russian) Additional polls
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