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A Bayesian Joint Probability Post-processor for Reducing Errors and Quantifying Uncertainty in Monthly Streamflow Predictions : Volume 17, Issue 2 (22/02/2013)

By Pokhrel, P.

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Book Id: WPLBN0004011011
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 10
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: A Bayesian Joint Probability Post-processor for Reducing Errors and Quantifying Uncertainty in Monthly Streamflow Predictions : Volume 17, Issue 2 (22/02/2013)  
Author: Pokhrel, P.
Volume: Vol. 17, Issue 2
Language: English
Subject: Science, Hydrology, Earth
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection (Contemporary), Copernicus GmbH
Publication Date:
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications


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Robertson, D. E., Wang, Q. J., & Pokhrel, P. (2013). A Bayesian Joint Probability Post-processor for Reducing Errors and Quantifying Uncertainty in Monthly Streamflow Predictions : Volume 17, Issue 2 (22/02/2013). Retrieved from

Description: CSIRO Land and Water, Graham Road, Highett, Victoria, Australia. Hydrologic model predictions are often biased and subject to heteroscedastic errors originating from various sources including data, model structure and parameter calibration. Statistical post-processors are applied to reduce such errors and quantify uncertainty in the predictions. In this study, we investigate the use of a statistical post-processor based on the Bayesian joint probability (BJP) modelling approach to reduce errors and quantify uncertainty in streamflow predictions generated from a monthly water balance model. The BJP post-processor reduces errors through elimination of systematic bias and through transient errors updating. It uses a parametric transformation to normalize data and stabilize variance and allows for parameter uncertainty in the post-processor. We apply the BJP post-processor to 18 catchments located in eastern Australia and demonstrate its effectiveness in reducing prediction errors and quantifying prediction uncertainty.

A Bayesian joint probability post-processor for reducing errors and quantifying uncertainty in monthly streamflow predictions

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