World Library  


Add to Book Shelf
Flag as Inappropriate
Email this Book

Reducing Structural Uncertainty in Conceptual Hydrological Modelling in the Semi-arid Andes : Volume 19, Issue 5 (13/05/2015)

By Hublart, P.

Click here to view

Book Id: WPLBN0004011425
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 20
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Reducing Structural Uncertainty in Conceptual Hydrological Modelling in the Semi-arid Andes : Volume 19, Issue 5 (13/05/2015)  
Author: Hublart, P.
Volume: Vol. 19, Issue 5
Language: English
Subject: Science, Hydrology, Earth
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection, Copernicus GmbH
Historic
Publication Date:
2015
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications

Citation

APA MLA Chicago

Dezetter, A., Hublart, P., Ruelland, D., & Jourde, H. (2015). Reducing Structural Uncertainty in Conceptual Hydrological Modelling in the Semi-arid Andes : Volume 19, Issue 5 (13/05/2015). Retrieved from http://ebook.worldlibrary.net/


Description
Description: UM2 – UMR HydroSciences Montpellier, Place E. Bataillon, 34395 Montpellier CEDEX 5, France. The use of lumped, conceptual models in hydrological impact studies requires placing more emphasis on the uncertainty arising from deficiencies and/or ambiguities in the model structure. This study provides an opportunity to combine a multiple-hypothesis framework with a multi-criteria assessment scheme to reduce structural uncertainty in the conceptual modelling of a mesoscale Andean catchment (1515 km2) over a 30-year period (1982–2011). The modelling process was decomposed into six model-building decisions related to the following aspects of the system behaviour: snow accumulation and melt, runoff generation, redistribution and delay of water fluxes, and natural storage effects. Each of these decisions was provided with a set of alternative modelling options, resulting in a total of 72 competing model structures. These structures were calibrated using the concept of Pareto optimality with three criteria pertaining to streamflow simulations and one to the seasonal dynamics of snow processes. The results were analyzed in the four-dimensional (4-D) space of performance measures using a fuzzy c-means clustering technique and a differential split sample test, leading to identify 14 equally acceptable model hypotheses. A filtering approach was then applied to these best-performing structures in order to minimize the overall uncertainty envelope while maximizing the number of enclosed observations. This led to retain eight model hypotheses as a representation of the minimum structural uncertainty that could be obtained with this modelling framework. Future work to better consider model predictive uncertainty should include a proper assessment of parameter equifinality and data errors, as well as the testing of new or refined hypotheses to allow for the use of additional auxiliary observations.

Summary
Reducing structural uncertainty in conceptual hydrological modelling in the semi-arid Andes

Excerpt
Abermann, J., Kinnard, C., and MacDonell, S.: Albedo variations and the impact of clouds on glaciers in the Chilean semi-arid Andes, J. Glaciol., 60, 183–191, 2013.; Bekele, E. G. and Nicklow, J. W.: Multi-objective automatic calibration of SWAT using NSGA-II, J. Hydrol., 341, 165–176, 2007.; Beven, K.: Prophecy, reality and uncertainty in distributed hydrological modelling, Adv. Water Resour., 16, 41–51, 1993.; Beven, K.: A Manifesto for the Equifinality Thesis, J. Hydrol., 320, 18–36, 2006.; Bezdek, J. C., Ehrlich, R., and Full, W.: FCM: The fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm, Comput. Geosci., 10, 191–203, 1983.; Birkel, C., Tetzlaff, D., Dunn, S. M., and Soulsby, C.: Towards a simple dynamic process conceptualization in rainfall–runoff models using multi-criteria calibration and tracers in temperate, upland catchments, Hydrol. Process., 24, 260–275, 2010. Blöschl, G. and A. Montanari: Climate change impacts–throwing the dice?, Hydrol. Process., 24, 374–381, 2010.; Blöschl, G. and Montanari, A.: Climate change impacts – throwing the dice?, Hydrol. Process., 24, 374–381, 2010.; Boyle, D. P., Gupta, H. V., and Sorooshian, S.: Toward improved calibration of hydrologic models: Combining the strengths of manual and automatic methods, Water Resour. Res., 36, 3663–3674, 2000.; Buytaert, W. and K. Beven: Models as multiple working hypotheses: hydrological simulation of tropical alpine wetlands, Hydrol. Process., 25, 1784–1799, 2011.; Deb, K., Pratap. A, Agarwal, S., and Meyarivan, T.: A fast and elitist multiobjective genetic algorithm: NSGA-II, IEEE T. Evolut. Comput., 6, 181–197, 2002.; Capell, R., Tetzlaff, D., and Soulsby, C.: Can time domain and source area tracers reduce uncertainty in rainfall-runoff models in larger heterogeneous catchments?, Water Resour. Res., 48, W09544, doi:10.1029/2011WR011543, 2012.; Caviedes, C. N. and Paskoff, R.: Quaternary glaciations in the Andes of north-central Chile, J. Glaciol., 14, 155–169, 1975.; Centro del Agua para Zonas Áridas y semiáridas de América Latina y el Caribe (CAZALAC): Aplicación de metodologías para determinar la eficiencia de uso del agua – Estudio de caso en la Región de Coquimbo. Informe Técnico, Gobierno Regional, Santiago (Chile), 2006.; Chiu, S.: Fuzzy model identification based on cluster estimation, J. Intell. Fuzzy Syst., 2, 267–278, 1994.; Clark, M. P., Slater, A. G., Barrett, A. P., Hay, L. E., McCabe, G. J., Rajagopalan, B., and Leavesley, G. H.: Assimilation of snow covered area information into hydrologic and landsurface models, Adv. Water Resour., 29, 1209–1221, 2006.; Clark, M. P., Slater, A. G., Rupp, D. E., Woods, R. A., Vrugt, J. A., Gupta, H. V., Wagener, T., and Hay, L. E.: Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE): A modular framework to diagnose differences between hydrological models, Water Resour. Res., 44, W00B02, doi:10.1029/2007WR006735, 2008.; Clark, M., Hreinsson, E. O., Martinez, G., Tait, A., Slater, A., Hendrikx, J., Owens, I., Gupta, H., Schmidt, J., and Woods, R.: Simulations of seasonal snow for the South Island, New Zealand, J. Hydrol., 48, 41–58, 2009.; Clark, M. P., Kavetski, D., and Fenicia, F.: Pursuing the method of multiple working hypotheses for hydrological modelling, Water Resour. Res., 47, W09301, doi:10.1029/2010WR009827, 2011.; Collet, L., Ruelland, D., Borrell-Estupina, V., Dezetter, A., and Servat, E.: Integrated modelling to assess long-term water supply capacity of a meso-scale Mediterranean catchment, Sci. Total Environ., 461/462, 528–540, 2013.; Coxon, G., Freer, J., Wagener, T., Odoni, N. A., and Clark, M. P.: Diagnostic evaluation of multiple hypotheses of hydrological behaviour in a limits-of-acceptability framework for 24 UK catchments, Hydrol. Process., 28, 6135–6150, doi

 

Click To View

Additional Books


  • Quantifying the Impact of Land-use Chang... (by )
  • A Comparison of Eddy-covariance and Larg... (by )
  • Integrated Response and Transit Time Dis... (by )
  • Curvature Distribution Within Hillslopes... (by )
  • Modeling Geophysical Complexity: a Case ... (by )
  • A Coupled Modeling Framework of the Co-e... (by )
  • Bayesian Objective Classification of Ext... (by )
  • Spatial Variation of Shallow and Deep So... (by )
  • A Steady-state Saturation Model to Deter... (by )
  • Hydrological Dynamics of Water Sources i... (by )
  • Modelled Sensitivity of the Snow Regime ... (by )
  • An Application of Gleam to Estimating Gl... (by )
Scroll Left
Scroll Right

 



Copyright © World Library Foundation. All rights reserved. eBooks from World eBook Library are sponsored by the World Library Foundation,
a 501c(4) Member's Support Non-Profit Organization, and is NOT affiliated with any governmental agency or department.